Football sports betting statistics

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More importantly, I think that this particular angle can have even more value when thinking about the matchup in terms of in-game betting. The dynamics of the matchup can change based on who is leading, shifting the expected rest-of-game spread and the total. Success rate measures how effective a team is at getting first downs. Ultimately, performance on first and second downs measure how efficient an offense is at either getting to third-and-short or avoiding third down entirely — in other words, how well an offense can keep its odds of maintaining possession long enough to score.

Passing is far more predictive of point differential than rushing because the average pass pay nets 6. In fact, passing efficiency is the most predictive metric of score differential other than turnovers, which we know are almost impossible to predict in a vacuum, but l are much likely to occur on passes — where either an interception or fumble can occur — than on runs, where only a fumble is possible.

Add it all together and you get early-down pass success rate as the most important metric I look at in a matchup of two teams. Pressure Rate The odds of a successful passing play go way down under pressure, and the odds of a successful drive go way down with a sack, and pressure rate is better than sack rate at predicting future sacks.

Since certain quarterbacks are better than others at overcoming pressure, some offensive lines are better than others at preventing it, and some defenses are better than others at causing it, pressure rate is essentially my way of schedule-adjusting pass success rate.

When betting totals, the safest under bets will be based on low success rates coupled with low explosive play rates and vice-versa. But if that defense has been getting by more on not allowing big plays against below-average offenses and has a middling success rate, they could have minimal impact on an offense that excels at both play-to-play success and at producing explosive plays.

Stuckey When I first sat down to think about this, I first thought about adjusted pace invaluable when betting totals as well as the importance of handicapping the matchups on both sides of the ball in the trenches with a variety of metrics such as adjusted sack rate, which also takes into account the impact a quarterback has in that department.

I also started to think about how important scheme is to me — types of man and zone defense, etc. However, after seeing the very smart things my colleagues have already mentioned, it finally dawned on me that I have to mention special teams. Field position matters, field goals swing covers and that hidden yardage can so often decide the outcome of a football game. Even a star player may not score many goals if the passes to him are poor or the opposing team is weak and already decisively beaten.

The same is true for stats about football teams. Can we conclude that Team A is the better team? What if Team A is the home team? Team B has faced extensive travel and a tough schedule. These facts — which do not appear on stats pages — suggest that Team B is a better team than its record shows. This leads us to the main problem with stats.

They are quantifiable and authoritative, and therefore we are tempted to rely on them too much, without taking other factors into account. When you prepare a wager, combine data analysis with other football betting tips that take motivation, venue, injuries, and other factors into account. Stats are uniquely valuable, but for successful wagering, you must analyze them thoroughly and place them in context with other factors.

The key point is that they should augment other kinds of information that you gather from other sources. The Most Important Football Stats for Betting Now that we have highlighted the advantages and dangers of following stats, the next question is clear: Which numbers can help us make sound betting decisions?

It turns out not to be a simple question. No matter what kinds of bets you prefer, some basic betting stats can help make you a better punter. Position in the League Even though you may be completely familiar with a team, you can get a clearer idea of its future performance by looking at its past positions in the league.

Current Form Football form stats are among the most basic football betting statistics, and every punter should study them. The form delivers valuable insights on how well or how badly each team is playing at a particular moment. Of course you should take this data into account as you prepare your bets. Any team can suffer a slump at any time; however, the cross-referencing form is a very good way to decide if you like the odds your bookmaker is offering. The league form is a good summary of how the teams are currently playing.

The conclusions you draw from the form are not always strictly numeric. In general, teams that are playing well continue to play well, and teams performing poorly tend to continue losing. But confidence and momentum play large roles in football, and a team making a mid-season bid for the title may perform better than its statistics lead you to expect.

Stats on the form can help you make a better prediction on the outcome of a match. It needs to have defeated direct rivals and other teams that stand between them and a championship. The solution? More football bet data. Crunch the numbers. Were the defeated competitors strong teams? Did they appear in the top 10 division? If your team has not tested its mettle against powerful opponents, it is foolish to suggest it will beat them.

Winning consistently over the long haul is what makes football teams worth betting on. A great many wagers are lost by punters who fail to evaluate team performance against relevant rivals. Winning and Losing Margins The margins of winning or losing are easy to overlook, but they are important factors to consider when football betting.

In both these cases, the win-loss record alone paints a misleading picture. It is easy to assume that a team with a string of losses is performing badly, but if they are playing stronger opponents or losing by a single goal, this might not be a fair assessment. Home vs. Take a look at these football team stats from the Premier League season : Home goals: Bookmakers are aware of this factor, and often include a home advantage index in their odds calculations.

Home versus away football form stats can give you a betting advantage over less observant punters. As you can see, It gets complicated if the away team is also a weak player at home. Possession Statistics Possession is one of the key pieces of information you should evaluate before making a football bet. Possession simply indicates the percentage of time each team has possession of the ball. Home teams typically have more possession time than away teams.

The same is true of stronger teams against weaker opponents. Football statistics like possession can help you detect fluctuations during the game that suggest a team may be struggling. Shots vs. Goals Shots metrics are often used alongside possession statistics.

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